Harley-Davidson Q1 Financials Are Out, and They...

“Would you like the excellent news first, or the dangerous information first?” might be one thing you have requested different individuals earlier than. And if you happen to, like me, are at present Harley-Davidson’s Q1 2025 monetary outcomes, you then may end up asking whether or not whoever wrote this requested themselves that query, too.

As a result of that is just about the way it’s structured: Small glint of excellent information first, then nearly each different piece of stories is dangerous and/or worse.

For those who’ve been following the corporate’s fortunes for some time, like we’ve, then this may not come as a shock. You might need hoped issues would flip round, as I am positive the corporate itself does. However FY 2024 was terrible, and if the Q1 2025 results are indicative of the long run, this 12 months seems prefer it might be even worse.

So first, the excellent news: Q1 2025 did not go as badly as Harley anticipated. That is it; that is the excellent news.

The numbers nonetheless aren’t constructive; they only aren’t as dangerous because it thought they could be. The precise method that outgoing Harley-Davidson CEO phrased it was, “Our first quarter outcomes had been forward of our expectations in lots of areas.” Hey, any port in a storm, proper?

However what does that imply in numbers? In Q1 2025, Harley-Davidson’s total income is down 23% year-on-year over Q1 2024. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) is $1.07, which is down 38% YoY over Q1 2024. 

Now, let’s dive into the meat of the Q1 2025 report.

For these unfamiliar, Harley-Davidson’s monetary experiences embody three segments that add as much as kind the entire Harley-Davidson image. They’re: Harley-Davidson Motor Firm (HDMC), which covers its combustion bikes, components, equipment, and attire; Harley-Davidson Monetary Providers (self-explanatory); and LiveWire, which encompasses each the LiveWire-branded EV bikes and its STACYC EV children stability bike model. Add these segments collectively, and also you get the total H-D image.

HDMC’s retail gross sales figures for Q1 2025, each worldwide gross sales and market share figures are down year-on-year as in comparison with Q1 2024. Worldwide motorbike gross sales are down by 21 p.c. When it comes to market share, within the US, it is down by a single p.c; going from 37% in Q1 2024 to 36% in Q1 2025.

In Europe, nevertheless, market share has dropped by greater than 50% over Q1 2024. Again then, the Motor Firm’s European market share was 5%; right here in Q1 2025, it is now hovering at simply 2%.

However let’s return to gross sales, and break down that Worldwide into its constituent markets. In North America, Q1 2025 HDMC gross sales had been down by 24% year-on-year over Q1 2024. In Europe, the Center East, and Africa (EMEA), they had been down by 2%. In Asia-Pacific, they had been down by 28%. And at last, in Latin America, they had been down by 6%. 

Over on the HDFS facet, revenues are solely down 2% year-on-year as in comparison with Q1 2024. Whereas that is nonetheless a unfavourable quantity, it’s actually not the worst information. Working revenue on this phase is up 19% YoY.

Transferring on to LiveWire, we’ve each dangerous and relatively excellent news to report right here, too. In earlier years, LiveWire’s unit gross sales reporting put each LiveWire EV bikes and STACYC into the identical bucket, so it wasn’t clear what number of models of every sort of EV had offered. Nonetheless, the Q1 2025 outcomes escape “Bike Items” and “Electrical Bike Items” into their very own separate entities, so we are able to clearly see which is which. 

With that in thoughts, LiveWire reported a grand complete of 33 bikes offered in Q1 of 2025. That is down by 72% over Q1 2024. In contrast, it offered 1,970 electrical bikes throughout the Q1 2025 time interval, which is down by 33% YoY. Income for the mixed LiveWire EV phase was $3M for Q1 2025, which is down by 42% over Q1 2024. 

In amongst all that negativity, although, there is a slight silver lining. Though the LiveWire phase continues to function at a loss in Q1 2025 (which, bear in mind, the agency advised everybody to count on for the primary a number of years that the phase was to exist), it is truly much less of a loss in Q1 2025 than it was in Q1 2024. 

How a lot much less dangerous is it? In Q1 of 2025, LiveWire reported a $20M working loss. Imagine it or not, that is considerably higher than its Q1 2024 working loss, which was $29M. In actual fact, it marks a 32% transfer in the suitable path if the phase is to turn out to be worthwhile within the foreseeable future. So, cautious optimism could be so as, though solely promoting 33 bikes in a single quarter now that LiveWire is considerably established as a model (and is promoting in Europe in addition to the US) might be not very confidence-inspiring.

What About Tariffs? 

The Motor Firm took this chance to deal with this specific elephant within the room, too. There’s a complete web page within the investor presentation that outlines the place it stands, and that you just may discover useful when contemplating what’s to come back.

Picture by: Harley-Davidson

However in unsure occasions and a worrisome financial system, fewer persons are inclined to spend cash on issues like new bikes. Issues are completely different in cultures the place bikes are used extra as on a regular basis transportation, however the US is not a type of locations.

Whereas a few of us on this nation do attempt to experience as a lot as attainable, and for as many issues as attainable, the overwhelming majority experience bikes for enjoyable and leisure. In different phrases, not as on a regular basis commuter, jack-of-all-trades machines (as is the case in different components of the world).

As a result of that is the case, and since that is additionally Harley’s largest gross sales market by quantity, even the truth that Harley sources elements and builds the vast majority of its bikes within the US cannot and will not fully defend it from the impacts of how the tariff state of affairs finally ends up shaking out.

With all that in thoughts, it is completely under no circumstances stunning that Harley-Davidson additionally added this easy, one-line assertion to its Q1 2025 monetary report. It reads, “As a result of unsure world tariff state of affairs and macroeconomic circumstances, we’re withdrawing our full 12 months 2025 monetary outlook from February 5, 2025.”

Though issues have not been rosy at Harley for a while, it isn’t the primary and undoubtedly will not be the final main firm that has withdrawn or will withdraw its monetary steerage for the rest of 2025.

How are you going to predict the unimaginable on continuously shifting floor? You possibly can’t.